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Bridge Rules – Learn How To Play This Epic Card Game
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Of all the games played with cards, the bridge is easily the most complex one you'll encounter. Although the basic bridge rules aren't that hard to learn, the various strategies and conventions you'll need to memorize make things quite complicated. When played in the tournament format, the bridge card game is almost entirely the game of skill, even more so than Texas Holdem. The game is all about your ability to communicate the information to your partner and play your hand in the best way possible based on the information you have. If you have some experience with tricks’ games, you’ll have a good starting point at least, as you’ll understand some of the fundamental premises of the bridge card game. If you’re really intent on learning how to play bridge, you need to be prepared to put in some serious hours of studying. Unlike most other games like rummy, the bridge doesn’t make any sense if you try to play it “randomly.” In this article, you’ll learn bridge rules and some fundamental concepts of the game, which should give you a nice head start on your journey. You won’t be ready to sit down and play immediately, but you’ll at least have a good idea of where to go next. Bridge Glossary Bidding – the process of making a contract in bridge game, determining the goal that the partnership wants to achieve. Tricks – batches of four cards played face up. The number of tricks won determines if the contract is completed. Declarer – the player trying to make the contract. Defenders – players trying to prevent the declarer from making their contract. Dummy – declarer partner’s hand that’s placed face-up on the table after the bidding and before the play starts. Trump suit – the suit that’s been selected as the trump through the bidding process. NT – no-trump. A special kind of contract in bridge, where there is no trump suit. Game – a bridge contract of at least 3NT or 4 of any suit Small slam – a contract at the 6 level (like 6NT or 6c) Grand slam – a contract at the 7 level (like 7h or 7d) Conventions – special bidding systems used to exchange information between partners without actually talking. Bridge Game Preparation As far as logistics are concerned, the bridge card game isn’t particularly demanding. All you’ll need is a standard deck of cards and three more players. The game is traditionally played by four players and in pairs or partnerships. Players sitting across each other are partners and are designated by four sides of the world. North-South (N-S) East-West (E-W) While learning how to play bridge, it’s also a good idea to have a handy bridge scoring card. You can find these online, but they are also often included in the decks. You’ve probably seen these before but didn’t know what they were for. When playing in an official bridge tournament, you’ll also come across bidding cards. These are used for the bidding process, but you don’t need them when playing with friends. You can verbally announce your bids. Bridge Rules For most people, it will take some time to learn and understand bridge rules fully. The game is quite complicated, but you shouldn’t let this discourage you though. Give yourself enough time and learn at your own pace. The Objective of the Bridge Game Your main objective in the bridge game is to either make the contract that you declared or prevent the other partnership from making the contract. The side trying to make the contract is known as the declarers, and the other partnership takes on the defenders' role. To make your contract, you'll need to win tricks through a process similar to that found in the game of spades. But, how do you arrive at the contract in the first place? Bidding in Bridge: Making the Contract In the bridge game, the bidding process is probably the most important and the most difficult part. You’re trying to achieve the highest number of points possible between you and your partner, but avoid going too high as failing to complete the contract comes with penalties. In the simplest of terms, the contract defines the trump suit and the number of tricks you promise to win. There are three main types of contracts in the bridge card game: Minor suit contracts: where clubs or diamonds are trumps Major suits: where hearts and spades are trumps Non-trump (NT): there are no trumps But how do you go about making a contract? It happens through the process of bidding. It starts with the dealer, who can put in the initial bid of their choosing, or decide to pass, allowing the next player to make a bid (or pass), etc. An individual bid promises to win six tricks plus whatever the number is mentioned in the bid. For example, the dealer could start with the bid of one heart (1h). This means they're going for a contract of at least seven tricks (6 + 1), with hearts as the trump suit. The player left to the dealer can elect to pass or bid themselves. If they want to bid, the bid has to be higher than the original bid. In this particular example, the bid could be one spade (1s) or any bid on the second level (2c, 2d, 2h, 2s). When making the bid on the same level, you have to bid the higher suit. Unlike when playing poker hands, suits have a different value in bridge card game and are ranked as follows –  clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades (from the lowest to the highest). To arrive at the final contract, two partners need to work together. This is where bridge rules become tricky. Every bid you make sends a certain message to your partner, and based on that information, they'll decide their action. If North bids 1H and West passes, what should South do? How do they best support their partner and arrive at the most favorable contract? This is where various bridge game conventions come into play. These conventions explain what every particular bid means within that convention. I'll expand more on that concept a bit later in the article, although you need to know that this is a vast topic that countless books have been written on. Scoring in Bridge Much like the rest of the game, bridge rules for scoring are rather complicated. It will take you some time to memorize them, so you should probably print them out or have the scoring card around while still learning. The number of points won in a round depends on the kind of contract declared and whether the declarers make the contract, fall short, or go over the promised number of tricks. Standard contracts: 50 points for making a contract + additional points for any over-tricks (+20 for a minor suit, and +30 for every major suit over-trick). If your contract is no trump, you’ll also receive additional +10 points. Bidding the game: bidding at level 4 for major suits (4h), at level 5 for minor suits (5c), and at level 3 for NT: +250 points if you make the game, plus all the points described above (basic contract and over-trumps). Small slam: making any contract at 6 level (like 6c or 6NT): +500 bonus points Grand slam: +1,000 bonus points. If you fail to make your contract, you’ll receive -50 points for every under-trick. For example, if you end up playing 3h but only make seven tricks, you'll be two tricks short and will receive -100 points. During the bidding process, your opponents can also call doubles on your contract if they believe you can't make it. In that case, penalties for failing to make the contract are higher. If you believe the other side is wrong and you’re confident you can make the contract, you can redouble, which gives you the chance to win extra points when you make the contract. I won't explain the points' system for doubles and redoubles here in detail. When you're ready, you can easily find this information, but you won't need it when just starting with the bridge game. Going for doubles is an advanced play that you can only make once you develop a better understanding of how the whole bidding process works and how to figure out if you have enough key cards between you and your partner to prevent the opponents from making the contract. You should focus on learning basic bridge rules and how to play this game for the time being. When the time comes to expand on your knowledge, there are heaps of resources out there to help you. Dealing Cards in Bridge Everyone receives 13 cards, face-down, to start the round. Cards are dealt one at a time, starting with the player to the dealer’s left and moving clockwise. How to Play the Bridge Card Game Learning how to play bridge once the bidding is done is actually the easier part. While there is still a lot of strategy involved if you want to play properly, at least the bridge rules for this part of the game are fairly straightforward. Playing a Hand of Bridge Once the bidding is done, you’ll know who’s the declarer and who’s defending. At the start of the play, the player's partner making the final bid will put their cards on the table, face-up, for everyone to see. This is known as the “dummy” hand. Once cards are tabled, the partner no longer actively participates in the hand. The player seated immediately left to the declarer (the still-active player from the declaring partnership) will play the first card, face-up, on the table. The play then continues clockwise, so it's the dummy hand that goes next on the first play. Since the declarer's partner is no longer participating in the hand, the declarer decides what cards they want to play from the dummy. So, the declarer plays both hands for the partnership. The player who wins the trick is the next lead with any card from their hand, and the round plays according to the same rules. Winning Tricks in Bridge The first card to be played on the table is known as the lead. Once the lead is played, all players must follow suit, if possible. So, if the player leads with an Ac, all players must also play a club, if they have any clubs in their hands. The trick is won by the player playing the highest-ranking card of the corresponding suit (aces are high in bridge card game). If a player can’t follow suit, they’re allowed to play any card from their hand. If it is a contract with a trump suit, this includes any trump cards. In the event one or more trump cards have been played, the trick is won by the player playing the highest-ranking trump card. In no-trump (NT) contracts, there is no trump suit. This means that the trick is always won by the highest card in the lead suit. Calculating Points Once all 13 cards have been played, players will count tricks and mark down the scores. The scoring is done using the earlier described system. When all scores are noted, a new hand of the bridge card game can commence. Bridge Game Tips & Tricks Learning bridge card game rules is one thing, but learning how to play bridge well and make no mistakes in the process is an entirely different matter. Bridge strategies are so complex and detailed that it will take much more than reading a few tips to become good at it. However, you should still try to understand these common notions, as they’ll help you on your journey to becoming a great bridge player. Bridge Card Game Tip #1: What Are Conventions in Bridge? If you remember, we've mentioned conventions earlier in this text. These are very specific bidding systems that help players communicate with each other without talking to their partner. In bridge, you're not allowed to talk to other players unless you're making a bid. In official tournaments, special cards are used for this purpose, and players aren’t allowed to talk or exchange any signals at all. Any such behavior would be considered cheating. There are well over two dozen bridge game conventions, and it's up to you and your partner to agree which one you want to use. You also need to let your opponents know what convention you're using, but it’s not your job to explain how it works. If they don’t know, that’s on them. To give you an idea of how these conventions work, here’s an example of Acol, a fairly simple one quite popular with beginners. In Standard Acol, your opening bid promises at least 12 high card points. High card points (HCP) are counted as follows: Aces: 4 points Kings: 3 points Queens: 2 points Jacks: 1 point There are many special bids within this system. For example, when you open with the bid of two clubs (2c), you aren’t sending a message that you want to play in clubs. Instead, you’re letting your partner know you have a strong hand (at least 23 HCP) and are inviting them to the game (going at least to level 4 or 3NT). Based on your partner's response, you'll try to further determine what suit you want to play in or if you might be better at playing in NT. This is just a very small fragment of how bridge game conventions work. Once you’re done learning bridge rules, I suggest you spend some time studying Standard Acol, as you’ll need to know at least one convention if you want to play the game correctly. Bridge Card Game Tip #2: There Is No Shame in Passing New bridge players often feel compelled to make a bid, especially when they’re the first to speak. There is really no shame in passing, though. You should only open bidding if you have at least 12 HCP in your hand. This is the bare minimum to start looking for a contract between you and your partner. If you have fewer points, simply pass and see what happens. Enjoy All the Intricacies of the Bridge Card Game If you feel like all these rules and conventions are too much to handle, don't worry. Learning how to play bridge is no easy task, and this isn't a card game you can learn in a few minutes. Unless you happen to be very talented, you'll spend a long time feeling a bit lost while playing. That’s perfectly fine, though. Bridge isn’t the war card game or anything in an alight with go fish. It’s a complex game that will test your skills and your memory to the max. It may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but if you fall in love with it, bridge has a lot to offer. There is always something new to learn. If you find a partner who's equally enthusiastic about it, you can have loads of fun playing and learning bridge card game.
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BGC ices gambling talk on football social media sites
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The UK Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) is asking football clubs to refrain from discussing and promoting gambling on their social media sites in as part of an effort to avoid triggering problem gamblers. It’s move that may seem extreme to the layman, but will likely help keep UK gambling operators a step ahead of UK gambling regulators. Guidelines for how football clubs should handle discussions of gambling were sent out by the BGC late last week and utilize a plea from 50 former gambling addicts to make the case. They pointed out that seeing their favorite club site promoting gambling caused them “distress” and “encouraged” them to place wagers. As an effort to avoid these triggering moments, the BGC is recommending that football clubs refrain from promoting gambling operators or bonus offers and their “organic tweets”. This is a nod to the reality that gambling offers are ubiquitous on social media and that no one is really more than a click or two away from them on the internet anyways. BGC officials sent a letter detailing the new code of conduct to 11 football clubs, as well as to social media operators. In a statement reported on by SBC News, Brigid Simmonds OBE, Chairman of the BGC described the importance of the new standards saying, “Our members rightly have a zero tolerance approach to gambling by under-18s, so as an industry we are understandably concerned that children may be exposed to betting adverts on social media platforms. Our new guidelines make clear the standards expected of football clubs when they post gambling promotions on social media, and I look forward to them being put into practice as soon as possible.” The BGC guidelines are not legally binding, but members of the BGC who wish to remain in good standing are expected to abide by them. The post BGC ices gambling talk on football social media sites appeared first on .
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PokerStars Rolls Out New LSNG Leaderboard Promotion, Tetris + Spin & Go
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PokerStars has rolled out Tetris + Spin & Go, a temporary takeover of their ultra-popular lottery sit and go game with a new theme and a lucrative new promotion for players. F5poker first revealed that PokerStars was working on such a promotion back in September 2020. On Monday, it deployed globally on most licenses on the global dot-com pool as well as on France and Spain, part of the European shared liquidity network. The Spin and Go lobby in the client has been redesigned with a Tetris aesthetic, as have the tables. The game itself remains unchanged—fast, winner-takes-all sit and gos with a random top prize. What is new is the promotion on top: Tetris-themed leader boards. While the mechanics are fairly complicated—it involves Line Clears, Levels and Game Scores—it boils down to daily player rankings where cash prizes are given out to the highest volume players. For players that fall outside the cash prizes, the operator has a $5000 daily prize draw for players that finished in the top 500. In total, the operator says that over $1.5 million will be paid out in the dot-com market and almost as much—€1 million—in the Southern European market from now until the end of March. This works out at over $33,000 daily in dot-com, and €23,000 in Southern Europe. It appears to replace the previous long-running Spin & Go 20 and 50 leader boards. This had given away just over $20,000 a day and had run throughout much of 2020.
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2021 Australian Open: What to Watch on Tuesday Night
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Rod Laver Arena | 11 p.m. TuesdayAndrey Rublev vs. Daniil MedvedevAndrey Rubley and Daniil Medvedev secured the ATP Cup for Russia earlier this month, with neither player losing a singles match throughout. In their three meetings on the ATP Tour, Medvedev has come out on top each time, including in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open in September.This may be Rublev’s chance to finally overcome his friendly rival. He has looked particularly dominant, not dropping a set throughout the tournament. His match against Casper Ruud ended after only two sets when the Norwegian withdrew with an injury. Going into the quarterfinals, Rublev has led the field in both percentage of first service points won and second service points won, a sign of how hard it has been for opponents to break his serve.Medvedev has also been playing well, aside from a chaotic, disorganized third round match against Filip Krajinovic. He has now won 18 matches in a row, with his last loss coming in October at a tournament in Vienna. Although the fast surface fits Medvedev’s flat baseline shots, Rublev’s open stance is well suited in defense, and we’re sure to see many dynamic, aggressive point.Rod Laver Arena | 3:30 a.m. WednesdayRafael Nadal vs. Stefanos TsitsipasRafael Nadal, the No. 2 seed, has moved smoothly through the first four rounds, no surprise for a player with 20 Grand Slam titles. Although Nadal won his only Australian Open title over a decade ago, he has reached the finals on four other occasions since, and is a clear favorite in his half of the draw to do so again. Nadal’s powerful topspin shots are well-suited to clay courts where he can drag opponents around with tightly angled shots. Nadal’s ability to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses with relentless pressure can break most players on their best days.Stefanos Tsitsipas, the ATP finals winner in 2019, is a study in unpredictability. The fifth seed has a capable all-court game, but lacks the consistency to execute match after match. The 22-year-old has worked to improve this aspect of his game, but needed five sets to push back unseeded Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round. After receiving a walkover in the round of 16, Tsitsipas will be well rested and hoping for an advantage against one of the most mentally tough players on tour.
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Pumaren resigns as Adamson coach, focuses on councilor duties
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Former Adamson coach Franz Pumaren. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO MANILA, Philippines — Adamson University has parted ways with head coach Franz Pumaren, the school announced Tuesday. In a statement, Adamson said Pumaren will no longer return as coach of the Soaring Falcons to focus on his duties as councilor in the third district of Quezon City. “As Adamson University understands the desire of Coach Franz to give full-time service to his constituents in his district in Quezon City, we announce with a heavy heart that Coach Franz will cease mentoring the Adamson Falcons effective this current year,” the statement read. “The whole Adamson community would like to thank Coach Franz Pumaren for his unselfish sharing of his time and talent with the Adamson Men’s Varsity Team, masterfully lifting once again the standing of the Falcons in the prestigious UAAP League.” Pumaren, who steered La Salle to five UAAP championships, returned to coaching in the collegiate ranks with Adamson in 2016. He guided the Falcons to three Final Four appearances. “His unique brand of coaching has carried the Falcons through several respectable finishes in the last five UAAP seasons which were considered by the Adamson community as the most electrifying Falcon seasons by far,” the school wrote. “To Coach Franz, we will forever be grateful. We could not have pulled off the Falcon’s comeback in the UAAP podium without you.” Mike Fermin has been tapped as the Falcons’ interim head coach. Read Next Don't miss out on the latest news and information. Subscribe to INQUIRER PLUS to get access to The Philippine Daily Inquirer & other 70+ titles, share up to 5 gadgets, listen to the news, download as early as 4am & share articles on social media. Call 896 6000. For feedback, complaints, or inquiries, contact us.
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Thousands of jobs available at tribal casinos
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With millions of Americans out of work, the first sign of a recovery has to be in new jobs coming on the market. The tribal gaming industry is doing its part, with several operators posting new jobs in the past few weeks.Seneca Gaming Corporation has lots of jobs available at the Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino in Niagara Falls and Seneca Buffalo Creek Casino in downtown Buffalo. The operator will be hosting a job fair for open positions on February 25 between 10:00am and 6:00pm.“Even with the changes and challenges everyone has gone through over the past year, Seneca Gaming Corporation has remained one of the largest employers in Western New York, and we are excited to be growing our team across a variety of departments,” said Meghan Smith, Seneca Gaming Corporation’s vice president of human resources. “We truly believe that the time we spend at work should be rewarding, fulfilling and fun. That’s how we approach our jobs every day. If people are looking an opportunity in that type of environment, we are ready to talk to them.”Attendees can check out what’s on offer in person or virtually, but should be ready for an interview at a moment’s notice.On the other side of the country, the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians are also on the look out for fresh talent. That operator has more than 500 jobs to fill, with as many as 2000 coming for the rest of the year. They’ll be having their virtual career fair on February 18 from 9:00am to 4:00pm.“The expansion of San Manuel will offer an economic boost to the local job market at a time when it is really needed,” said Brigitte Saria, Chief People and Infrastructure Officer. “Our efforts to boost the local economy are guided by our commitment to ensuring our employment process and work environment follow leading health and safety standards.”The Chukchansi Gold Resort and Casino in Coarsegold, California are also hiring. The tribe is looking for 50 full-time and part-time positions, and will have a job fair on February 23 from 10:00am to 1:00pm.Add those jobs to the 150 that Oneida Nation Enterprises were offering as of last week, and there’s a lot to be hopeful for about the future of the economy, and particularly that of tribal gaming.Connecticut tribes close to new dealGovernor Ned Lamont wants sports betting in his state, and he needs a new deal with the tribes to get it done. He used his budget address to emphasize the push:“My administration has been in active negotiations with our tribal partners to bring the state’s gaming economy into the digital age. And I am submitting legislation which reflects what I believe to be the best bet in ending this stalemate of inaction in a way which is in the best interest [of] the entire state.”Construction resumes at Four WindsThe Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians’ contractor recently resumed building a hotel at Four Winds South Bend Casino. Construction slowed down significantly due to Covid-19.The new 23-story hotel was originally due to be completed this year. But with construction crews only working on the foundation now after a 10-month delay, maybe 2022 seems more accurate.
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GGPoker Adds More Variety to No-Strings-Attached “Daily Freebie” Promotion
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Verified players can continue to play a real-money game, such as Flip & Go and Spin & Gold, for free each and every day.One of the most popular promotions for low stakes players on GGPoker has been further expanded. During the software update on February 10, the Daily Free Spin promotion changed to Daily Freebie. Furthermore, UK players can now also claim the daily gift for a chance to boost their bankrolls. All players, both existing and new, just need to have verified accounts and log in each day to claim their gift, which lets plays play real money tournaments—and compete for real money cash prizes. The update has expanded what is given away. Now, there are Daily Freebie tickets for Flip & Go, the super-successful new format introduced in January 2021. It has also undergone some changes since its launch, with GGPoker increasing the frequency and adjusting the buy-ins as well as the maximum number of stacks for purchase. “GGPoker is happy to confirm that we’ve relaunched our Daily Free Spin offer as the Daily Freebie; verified players can continue to play a real-money game, such as Flip & Go and Spin & Gold, for free each and every day. All they need to do is log in and claim their daily reward!” said Paul Burke, Head of Public Relations at GGPoker. “We hope to continue to change up the rewards on offer in the future, giving all players the opportunity to try out GGPoker’s most exciting games, no matter their bankroll.” For existing players, Daily Freebie is available immediately—just log in and claim. If you haven’t yet signed up, you can do so today and enjoy the promotion as soon as you have verified your account. You can also take advantage of all of GGPoker’s generous welcome bonuses. How the GGPoker Daily Freebie Promotion Works The operator has seen unprecedented growth in 2020 to become one of the leading online poker platforms for tournaments and cash games. GGPoker has achieved that with a plethora of promotions, innovations, and high-profile partnerships. Their continued success has led to a record $7.5 million in promotions given away in February 2021. One of several promotions for players with smaller bankrolls is the Daily Freebie formerly the Daily Free Spin. This was launched on September 7, 2020. It has given verified players the opportunity to claim one $0.25 Spin & Gold ticket every day ever since. The free ticket courtesy of GGPoker continues to be available under the new name three times per week—*but this rotates with other ticket types.* Players can see the next six upcoming Daily Freebies listed under the “My Promo” tab. A new daily gift becomes available after each daily reset at midnight Pacific time. Each ticket will continue to feature an expiration date of 24 hours once the Daily Freebie has been awarded. The current rotation of Daily Freebie is fixed for the time being. However, GGPoker hopes “to change the daily prizes on a semi-regular basis,” according to Burke. He also hinted at a strong possibility that the Daily Freebie will include the alternative currencies C$ or T$ sometime soon. Newly included as a prize in the Daily Freebie is a $1 Spin & Gold ticket, which can be claimed once per week. Furthermore, five $0.05 Flip & Go tickets are up for grabs three times per week, giving players the chance at trying the new tournament format free of charge. As a mixture between a Flipout and regular tournament, Flip & Go was launched on January 12, 2021. However, it only took a few days for the first tweaks to be made. Initially slated to take place once every hour, it was soon increased to once every 30 minutes. The buy-ins were also adjusted and the lowest available stake was increased to $0.05 with a guarantee of $50. Players can now take a shot at their own leisure three times per week and enter this lowest tier with five stacks thanks to the Daily Freebie. Upon launch, the Flip & Go featured a maximum of 10 entries for each of the four stakes. However, that number has been adjusted recently and the stacks for purchase are now capped at a maximum of eight. This makes the bonus stacks based on the holdings during the Flipout stage more valuable in comparison. The overall feedback for the new tournament format has been very positive, as outlined by Burke. “Players love it! We have been very pleasantly surprised by the positivity seen across almost all feedback, of course not all players are interested in a new game type but those who have tried it have mostly good things to say about Flip & Go. We’ve also received some constructive criticism, which is also valuable.” Further tweaks to the Flip & Go format may very well possible, as GGPoker is constantly reviewing and optimizing its schedule. One such adjustment was made with the expansion of the popular Daily GGMasters earlier in February. The changes to the Daily Freebie promotion went live on February 10. All verified GGPoker players in eligible countries can claim their daily gift under the “My Promo” tab after each daily reset.
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When I was 17 years old, I ran 100 km (62 miles). I trained for this for 8 months. Next goal is to run 3 marathons in a row. That’s 126.6 km (78.7 miles).
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Daniil Medvedev Finds Another Way of Playing Professional Tennis
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At 23, Rublev is two years younger than Medvedev and grew up playing junior tournaments against him in Russia. For a long time Rublev, seeded No. 8, and Karen Khachanov, 24, the third member of Russia’s latest golden generation, were better than Medvedev. The rise for Medvedev came in 2018 and 2019, when he nearly beat Rafael Nadal in the 2019 United States Open final.“He reads the game really well,” Rublev said of Medvedev. “It’s amazing, the patience he has to stay so long in the rallies, to not rush, to take the time, because in the end these little details, they make him who he is.”Russia is the only country with two players in the top 10. Khachanov gives it three in the top 20. Aslan Karatsev, 27, another Russian ranked No. 114, came out of nowhere to make the quarterfinals here in his first Grand Slam tournament.Medvedev comes into the quarterfinal on perhaps the best roll of his career. He has won 18 consecutive singles matches. He won the ATP Tour finals in London in November, pulling off the nifty trick of beating the world’s top three players — Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Dominic Thiem — in a single tournament. For Russia at the ATP Cup, he beat Alexander Zverev of Germany, a 2020 U.S. Open finalist, in a tight, three-set match in the semifinal round.Medvedev spent his early childhood in Moscow and played few sports other than tennis growing up. He worshiped Russia’s last golden generation, which included Marat Safin and Yevgeny Kafelnikov, who were in their prime when he was a young child. He moved to France to train as a teenager and became fluent in English and French.Medvedev could be heard screaming at his coach, Gilles Cervara of France, in French during his third-round match against Filip Krajinovic of Serbia, as he frittered away a two-set lead before recovering to win the final set, 6-0.
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Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?
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The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.
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